As we step into spring, I wanted to check in with a fresh update on what’s happening in the mortgage and real estate world. Between global economic tensions, shifting interest rates, and a housing market trying to find its rhythm, there’s a lot to unpack.
This newsletter is here to help you stay one step ahead—especially if you’re renewing, refinancing, or considering a move this year.
🌍 Global Headlines: Trade Tensions Return
Trade disputes are back in the spotlight, particularly between the U.S. and China. Canada’s economy is also caught in the crossfire, with tariffs and supply chain constraints continuing to affect investor confidence. While President Trump hasn’t mentioned the “51st State” in a few weeks, but the relationship will remain sour for the foreseeable future. The economic levers at his disposal are going to be a constant source of anxiety to the Canadian Economy.
Why does this matter for your mortgage?
When uncertainty rises, we often see bond yields drop, pressuring fixed mortgage rates lower. But that doesn’t always last. Since Tariffs will lead to less products traded internationally and higher prices, this could reignite an inflationary cycle and lead to higher bond yields and Prime Rate increases from the Bank of Canada. If this happens, we could see interest rates rise, as we saw in 2022-2023. As usual there is no obvious path ahead, fixed or variable is a highly subjective question.
Also, this week has shown huge volatility in the Bond Market, which stems from the US Tariff plans announcement and then a few days later, amendment. President Trump walked back his plans significantly, with a 3-month postponement of his announced worldwide tariffs. Below is the chart showing this, and the quick direction change in 5-year bond yields. These rates set fixed mortgage rates in the near term. Over the longer term, higher rates may not be the case, but for the purposes of holding a mortgage rate, the best time to start is right away, as any move down can be held in an approval or preapproval and any moves up can be insured against with the lower rate held.
Bottom line: keep an eye on the headlines, but plan based on your personal situation—not just the noise and make sure you have a rate held if you might need it within the next 4 months.
📉 Interest Rate Watch
The Bank of Canada has been steadily cutting its key interest rate over the past year, bringing it down from 4.75% last June to 2.75% as of March. In step with that, the prime rate has dropped from 6.95% to 4.95%, offering some long-awaited relief to variable-rate mortgage holders.
Fixed rates, which started easing earlier, have already adjusted in anticipation of these moves—but there’s still opportunity, especially for those coming up for renewal or weighing whether to lock in.
If you’re wondering whether now’s the time to act, let’s run the numbers together. This market rewards preparation, not guesswork.
🕰️ Renewals Are Coming: Are You Ready?
If your mortgage is set to renew in 2025 or early 2026, now is the perfect time to start planning.
With millions of Canadians rolling into renewals over the next 18 months, almost certainly at higher rates than they’re currently paying—it pays to plan ahead. I can help you:
- Compare rates across lenders
- Explore mortgage renewal options, or potentially resetting amortization to lessen the impact of higher interest rates
- Use this renewal as an opportunity to payout other debts or loans
- Hold a rate for up to 120 days
Even if your renewal isn’t until later this year, I recommend we chat 4–6 months in advance so we can strategize.
🏘️ Market Snapshot: What We’re Seeing
The 2025 housing market is flat or decreasing in most markets in Canada. Across many regions, inventory is building. Buyer activity is cautious due to the economic/political situation but rising as rate relief is also bringing demand back. For those with secure income sources, this is an excellent market to buy in. Interest Rates have moderated, but more importantly many competing buyers have dropped out (at least for now) due to job insecurity.
Prices are holding relatively steady in most urban markets, with smaller dips in some suburban and rural areas. First-time buyers are still facing affordability challenges, but with the new mortgage rules taking place last year (Property Transfer Tax Exemption Changes and Amortization Changes) hopefully we see more First Time Buyers see their opportunity to buy.
